A majority of Ohio’s leading economists say lower levels of international immigration are likely to push up service prices across the state, according to a new survey released Thursday by the public policy firm Scioto Analysis.
In the Ohio Economic Experts Panel survey, 16 of 21 participating economists agreed that declining immigration will lead to higher service costs. The findings come as net immigration into the United States continues to fall sharply — from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. If current trends continue, that figure could drop to just 300,000 in 2026.
“This is one of the clearest costs of restricting immigration,” said Jonathan Andreas, an economist at Bluffton University.
Ohio’s population is already projected to shrink over the next several decades, and analysts warn that reduced international immigration could worsen the state’s demographic and economic challenges. Lower immigration means fewer workers in service industries such as health care, food service, and construction — sectors that rely heavily on labor availability to keep prices stable.
Not all economists saw the effect as one-sided. Will Georgic of Ohio Wesleyan University noted that both supply and demand forces are at play. “There are two competing forces that could cause prices for services to change,” he said, adding that declining immigration could reduce overall consumption but also tighten labor supply, driving wages — and eventually prices — higher.
Every economist surveyed agreed that a drop in international immigration will lead to a net loss in state tax revenue. Kathryn Wilson of Kent State University explained that immigrants contribute more in taxes than they receive in public benefits. “The research is clear that immigrants pay significantly more in taxes than they receive in benefits,” Wilson said. “Therefore, fewer international immigrants in Ohio will lead to a net loss in tax revenue.”
The panel also reported near-unanimous consensus on small business creation. Twenty of 21 economists agreed that a reduction in immigration would likely mean fewer new businesses in Ohio. “Studies have found that immigrants are more likely to start and own businesses than their domestic counterparts,” said Bill LaFayette of Regionomics. “They may be more risk-tolerant or attuned to niche market needs within their communities.”
The Ohio Economic Experts Panel draws from more than 30 economists at universities across the state. Scioto Analysis conducts the ongoing survey series to inform policymakers and the public about expert perspectives on economic issues affecting Ohio. Individual responses from this and previous surveys are available at sciotoanalysis.com.