A new survey from the Bowling Green State University (BGSU) Democracy and Public Policy Research Network shows the race for the U.S. Senate seat, as well as the open gubernatorial contest, are both effectively toss-ups one year out from the general election.
U.S. Senate: Husted and Brown Neck-and-Neck
The poll reveals a dead heat in the high-stakes U.S. Senate special election, with incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown locked in a close competition.
Husted, appointed to the seat following former Senator J.D. Vance’s move to the Vice Presidency, is running for the remaining two years of the term. Brown, who narrowly lost his re-election bid last year, is seeking a return to the Senate.
“The Senate race is exactly where we expected it to be—a slugfest between two of Ohio’s best-known politicians,” said Dr. Robert Alexander, a professor of political science at BGSU and one of the poll’s conductors. “Brown’s established brand among Ohio’s working-class voters keeps him highly competitive, even as Husted benefits from the state’s current Republican lean.”
The close margins place the race squarely within the poll’s 4.5% margin of error, signaling that the contest will be an expensive and grueling battle that could determine control of the U.S. Senate.
Governor’s Race: Ramaswamy Holds Narrow Edge
In the open race for Ohio Governor, Republican biotech executive and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is currently holding a slight lead over the two top potential Democratic contenders.
Ramaswamy narrowly leads both former Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton and former U.S. Congressman Tim Ryan. Neither Acton nor Ryan have officially declared their candidacies for Governor.
Dr. Acton, who gained high visibility during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Mr. Ryan, who ran a high-profile Senate race last year, represent the strongest potential challengers to Ramaswamy. The poll results suggest that the final Democratic nominee, whether it is Acton or Ryan, will face a highly competitive general election.
Voter Concerns Signal Trouble for Incumbents
The BGSU poll also provided a clear snapshot of Ohio voters’ main anxieties, which are likely to shape the 2026 contests. Voters cited the economy and inflation as their number one concern, followed by growing fears about threats to democracy and political polarization.
“With 56% of Ohioans feeling worse about the state of the country’s economy than a year ago, it presents a potential warning sign for Republicans who hold power across the state and in Washington,” added Dr. Alexander.
The poll was conducted from October 2-14, 2025, surveying 800 registered Ohio voters.